Naresh Rokad

Urbanisation refers to the concentrated human settlements in discrete areas as a result of the transformation of productive or non-productive land into diversified use such as residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, public purpose and so on. India (NIUA) claims to have the World’s second largest urban population which is predicted to cross 600 million by the year 2031. Among the states in India, Gujarat emerged as one of the advanced federations in terms of economic activities, education and other such aspects related to promoting urbanisation. In the South region of Gujarat state, the Surat city is developing on the banks of Tapi River. The city was declared as the “fastest growing city” in Asia during 2001, and the city registered a decadal growth rate of 85.09% during 1991-2001. Recently, in 2011 the city crossed a total population of 4.46 million with a decadal growth rate of 55.29%. The city had merely 1.02 million population in year 1981. It shows the tapping of available potential opportunities resulting in migration from across the country that increased urban population 4.5 times in three decades. Projections depict the rise of the population to 10 million in next three decades leveraging city status as a Metropolitan. The urbanisation brings challenges along with opportunities. The paper discusses on urban health and care facilities. Better health for the urban population results in reduced infant mortality (average rate of 18.02 since 2001 till 2013) as well as affects maternal mortality (average rate of 0.43 for the duration). Reduction in deaths is ensured by means of availing a variety of facilities including pocket level actions, as well as city-wide services. It seeks attention from the authority to avail all such infrastructure (social) and services (health and care) to be available with maximum possible accessibility by the citizens. The Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) is one of the oldest urban local body (established in 1852 AD). It is by constitutional provisions and the GTPUD Act; 1976 is responsible to make assessments of the social infrastructure requirement. It also needs to make planning arrangements as well as to look after the implementation. In absentia of information regarding planning approach to allocating such facilities motivated the authors to carry out a study in the area. The study aims to identify the demand-supply and gaps underlying in the sector using population projections by AIM and IIM tools. It also includes recommendations to carry out detailed planning and allocation prioritisation of facilities at different zones (through TPS mechanism of land plot reservation). Initial assessment till 2011 revealed that four out of total seven zones are not meeting with the requirements based on prevailing URDPFI guidelines.

Population projection is a scientific attempt to peep into the future population scenario, conditioned by making certain assumptions, using data relating to the past available at that a point of time. Assumptions used and their probability of  adhering in the future, forms a critical input in this mathematical effort. Population forecasting is the useful tool for infrastructure service design and planning. It helps in visualising the needs for future planning to the Urban Local Bodies and Authorities.

For finding the future infrastructure demands, an essential task is to perform population
projection exercise. Available methods and models are based on mathematical or birth, death and migration correlation base. Applying some of the methods for Surat, it was found that projected population using seven different methods for years 2021, 2031 and 2041. Alarming difference indicate an acute need to identify governing parameters (density, industrial growth and activates, built up area, health and education sector, infrastructure government policy and so on) that affect the increase or decrease in the projected population. Present work attempts to devise a statistical method for population projection of urban area. Such a model being valid for one city (Surat) may not be applicable to another city with same weightage of variables which leaves a scope to change these values as per the situations observed in different cities.

After identifying the natural growth and migration parameter and identification of parameters which are directly affecting the migration is important. Total main worker as per category, non-worker, 0-6 year age population, density, decadal population growth those all are set in one equation as per the correlation and validation for 2011 and then apply for future projection. The equation is passing out the validation criteria and its variation is less than 1%. This equation is more reliable and it can apply for population projection. Use of that equation it includes all growth parameter and creates land fact picture and it is derived less difference than any other method.